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ASO incrementality · App Store and Google Play

ASO incrementality your finance team can sign off

Control markets, a paid search check and rules set in advance.

  • 4.9 on Clutch from 48 reviews
  • €500M+ ad spend managed
  • 150+ brands grown since 2019
Test vs control markets+17% vs control, weeks 9 to 12

Test marketsControl marketsExtra installs

Control markets show what test markets would have done. The gap is the extra installs.

Illustration, not client data.
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The short answer

How do you prove ASO incrementality?

Change the listing in 2 or 3 test markets, leave matched control markets untouched, and compare organic installs in the same weeks against a baseline. This is the control-market method Admiral Media uses to prove ASO impact to finance teams.

Updated Every result links to a published case study or our own dated research.

Original research, November 2026

Listings that lag the app make clean test markets

On 2 November 2026 we read the public App Store listings of 150 top apps in 14 storefronts. A listing that lags the app's languages has room to show a gap.

24%of 1,107 app and storefront pairs with local language support show a listing that is not fully localized

Pairs with that gap, by storefront

  • Sweden45%
  • Netherlands44%
  • Germany24 of 11621%

All pairs 24%

151 of 271gaps have a translated description but still show the base screenshot set

Source: Admiral Media portfolio store benchmark, public App Store data collected 2 Nov 2026. 25 portfolios, 37 developer accounts, 150 top apps, 14 storefronts. A selected sample, not a random one. Custom product pages and tests are not visible in public data and are not counted. Full method and findings

The problem

Why ASO is hard to prove to finance

Everything moves at once

Seasonality, featuring and paid campaigns move installs in the same weeks.

Paid search blurs the line

Brand ads can take installs that would have come anyway.

Results without rules

Criteria set after the data give finance no reason to trust it.

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The method

Five steps from baseline to finance readout

Set up before the first change ships, so the result cannot be fitted afterwards.

  1. 01Weeks 1 to 4BaselineFour weeks per app and market, before any change.ImpressionsProduct page viewsConversion rateInstalls by source
  2. 02Week 5Test and control markets2 or 3 test markets change. Matched markets that share no listing stay untouched.
  3. 03Whole testPaid search held apartApple Ads budgets hold steady everywhere. Brand terms get their own test.
  4. 04Weeks 6 to 12Time-series readControl markets forecast the test markets. The gap is read weekly, with a range, and no early calls.
  5. 05Day 90Finance readoutExtra installs with your revenue data and the brand check, judged by the agreed rule: roll out, change or stop.

Evidence

Not all ASO proof is equal

Three ways to measure an ASO change, weakest first. We use the strongest each change allows.

  1. Strength 1 of 3

    Before and after

    One market against its own past.

    Weak spot
    Seasonality and paid spend move at the same time.
    We use it for
    A first read on one market.
    Example

    NeuroNation: +93% App Store search downloads in Korea after localized metadata, read before and after.

    Read the case study
  2. Strength 2 of 3

    Test vs control markets

    Test markets against matched, unchanged markets.

    Weak spot
    Needs separate listings and enough installs.
    We use it for
    Metadata, keywords and localization.
    Example

    Our 60 to 90 day pilots, rules agreed before week 5.

  3. Strength 3 of 3

    Live traffic test

    Two versions on live traffic, split by product page optimization or the same Apple Ads ad groups.

    Weak spot
    Creative and custom product pages only, not rankings.
    We use it for
    Icons, screenshots, video and custom product pages.
    Example

    ImmoScout24: −43% cost per acquisition with a custom product page against the default page, same Apple Ads ad groups, 4 weeks.

    Read the case study

Before the test

Two things we settle before any change ships

A written charter, and a check of what your brand ads really add.

Test charter

Signed off before week 5
Question
Does localized metadata raise organic search installs in Swedish and Dutch?
Test markets
Sweden, Netherlands
Control markets
Denmark, Norway, Finland
Primary metric
Organic App Store search installs a day, per market
Win if
Test markets beat the control forecast by 10% or more and the range stays above zero
Show the full charter
Guardrails
Product page conversion rate, rating, paid installs
Paid search
Apple Ads budgets unchanged in all five markets
Length
4 weeks of baseline, 8 weeks after the change
Then
Roll out to all tier 2 markets, or keep the old listing and test the next idea.

Example charter. An illustration, not a client test.

Brand search check

Do your brand ads buy installs you already had?

  1. Pause brand ads for 2 to 4 weeks in one market with frequent brand searches.
  2. Read total brand installs, paid plus organic.
  3. Set the brand budget by what it adds, per market.

Worked example

Paid brand installs before the pause
1,000 a week
Organic installs gained during the pause
+700 a week
Total installs lost
−300 a week

70% of the paid brand installs would have come anyway. The campaign added about 300 installs a week.

Illustration, not client data. Apple now shows more ads in App Store search, so a competitor may take the slot when you pause. What changed in App Store search

Need an ASO number finance will accept? Plan the first test with a senior strategist.

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The pilot

A 90-day pilot in 2 or 3 markets

Part of an ASO program of at least 6 months.

  1. Weeks 1 to 4Charter and baseline
  2. Week 5Changes ship
  3. Weeks 6 to 12Read against control
  4. Day 90Finance readout

Clients and recognition

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Andre Kempe
“Our clients consider us a long term growth partner. We sail the same boat as them.”
Andre Kempe, Founder and CEO. 15+ years scaling apps. Meet the team

Questions

About ASO incrementality

See how ASO pays back or check one app first with the ASO Checker.

How do we prove the incremental organic installs from ASO to our CFO?

Run the change in 2 or 3 test markets and leave matched control markets untouched. Compare organic installs in the same weeks against a baseline, hold Apple Ads budgets steady, and test brand search separately. Agree the decision rule before the change ships, then report the extra installs with your retention and revenue data, so finance sees value, not rankings.

How long should an ASO incrementality test run?

Most market tests need 60 to 90 days: about four weeks of baseline, then eight or nine weeks after the change, because the stores take time to index new metadata and rankings settle slowly. Creative tests on live traffic can finish sooner, often in two to six weeks, when the app has enough store traffic.

Can we use the stores' own A/B tests instead?

For creative, yes. Product page optimization on the App Store and store listing experiments on Google Play split live traffic between versions, which is the cleanest read. They do not cover search rankings, so changes to titles, keywords and localization still need the comparison against control markets.

How do we check whether Apple Ads on our brand terms cannibalize organic installs?

Pause brand campaigns in one market for two to four weeks while other markets keep running. Then read total installs from brand searches, paid and organic together. If organic installs rise by most of what paid delivered, the campaign was mostly buying installs you would have had anyway. Watch who takes the ad slot while you pause.

Which markets make good control markets?

Markets with similar installs, seasonality and paid spend that share no listing with the test markets. On the App Store one localization can serve several storefronts, so countries that share a language rarely control for each other. We pick controls from your own history and check that they moved with the test markets before the change.

What if our app is only big in one market?

Then the comparison runs against time and signals the change cannot touch, such as installs on the other store or branded search volume, over a long baseline. That is weaker evidence, so the report says so, and split tests on creative carry more of the proof.

What data do you need from us?

Read access to App Store Connect and Play Console for impressions, product page views, conversion and installs by source, your Apple Ads reports, and retention and revenue by market from your attribution or BI tool. Access is role-based and approved by your Legal and InfoSec teams first.

Does this replace our marketing mix model or attribution?

No, it feeds them. A market test gives a measured lift for one change, which can calibrate a marketing mix model. Organic store installs carry no channel in attribution, so tests are how ASO earns its line in the model, and your attribution data supplies the retention and revenue we join to the extra installs.

How is ASO incrementality testing priced?

Admiral Media does not publish prices. Measurement is part of an ASO program, scoped by the apps, markets and stores in it and how often you test. Programs run at least 6 months, and a one-time ASO audit is the other way to start.

Book a meeting

Which result do you need to prove?

Tell us the app, the markets and the question finance is asking. A senior strategist replies within one business day.

  • A test charter before any change ships
  • Results reported with your revenue data
  • At least 6 months, or start with a one-time audit

What happens next

  1. A senior strategist reads your brief.
  2. A 30 minute call about your apps, markets and data.
  3. A written scope and fee. You decide.

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